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Possible Rate Hikes

Published: Mar 9, 2010 by admin Filed under: Market Snapshot
The latest Fed discount rate hike to 0.75%, a 25-basis-point increase - which is the interest rate at which banks borrow from the Fed's discount window on Thursday 20th of February directed most U.S. economists to expect that the Fed would raise its benchmark interest rates.

According to a survey released on Monday economist expected this rise within six months by between a quarter and a half percentage points.

A majority of economists in the National Association of Business Economists' semiannual survey found the Fed's current stance of rates near zero percent is appropriate. Some number of economists believes that the current Fed policy by keeping the inertest rate at a historical low for a long period of time is exaggerated.

"A majority believes that a rise in interest rates is both likely and appropriate in the next several months," said NABE President Lynn Reaser.

The Fed has defended his stimulus policy by pointing at the continued high rates of unemployment and low inflation warrant holding rates exceptionally low for an extended period.

Still, reports show the economy is recovering gradually, and some policy makers believe the Fed should begin to prepare markets for the beginning of the process of tightening financial conditions.

The Fed is on track to end a program of buying $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities at the end of this month. The program was launched to provide extra support for the economy after policy-makers chopped rates to near zero.

Dollar Falls Vs Euro

Published: Mar 3, 2010 by admin Filed under: Market Snapshot
 The U.S. dollar dropped versus the euro and other major currencies. The Euro reached $1.3735 on Wednesday; up from $1.3608 in North American trade late Tuesday.

The market was deeply affected by Greece outlining its tax changes and budget cuts in an attempt to reduce its deficit, easing concerns about a debt-fueled crisis and reducing the relative appeal of the U.S. currency.

Relief about Greece's outlook, as well as reasonably good economic data out of the U.S., reduced the appeal of the greenback as a relatively safe investment.

Dollar Regains After a GDP Increase

Published: Feb 28, 2010 by admin Filed under: Market Snapshot
The dollar regained some ground on Friday after a report showed U.S. real gross domestic product increased at a 5.9% seasonally adjusted annualized pace in the final three months of 2009, revised up from 5.7% estimated last month.

The U.S. economy grew slightly faster than previously reported in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Friday, but details of the revision to gross domestic product show final sales in the United States were actually weaker than reported a month ago.

Identifying Systematic Risk

Published: Feb 19, 2010 by admin Filed under: Market Snapshot
<div style="margin: 1ex;"><div><img src="http://www.learning-forex.com/uploads/articles/cc259f06.jpg" align="left" alt="" border="0" height="265" hspace="" vspace="" width="400"><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">In trying to reach the moon, the US government wants to oversee the bank system in a way that would check for the kind of systemic problems that froze the credit markets in late 2008 and nearly ruined the financial industry in America.</font> <p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">The New York Times </font><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/18/business/18regulate.html?hp" target="_blank"><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">reports </font></a><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">“The Senate and the Obama administration are nearing agreement on forming a council of regulators, led by the Treasury secretary, to identify systemic risk to the nation’s financial system.”</font></p> <p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">It has yet to be&nbsp;determined how the newly formed group would differentiate between risks which is “local” and that which could disrupt the entire financial system. The government’s plan&nbsp;is to&nbsp;keep an especially sharp eye on the major money center banks&nbsp;such as&nbsp;Bank of America, Citigroup, investment banks&nbsp;including&nbsp;Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley.</font></p> <p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">That may work to some extent if the new council tracks the proprietary trades and creation of derivatives, but it still raises the question of&nbsp;what kind of trading and leveraged instruments are dangerous and which are not.</font></p><hr> <p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman"> Not all derivatives produce unpredictable investment results. Forecasting which ones will; is difficult.</font></p> <p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">The S&amp;L crisis of the 1980s and South American sovereign debt crisis of the 1970s were due to risks that fell outside trading and derivatives. It was nearly impossible to predict that Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico could threaten to default on their debt the same way that it would have been improbable that US regulators could have forecast the&nbsp;sovereign debt problems in Greece two years ago. </font></p> <p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">In other words, systemic risk often sits well outside the&nbsp;purview and anticipation US federal regulators. The next systemic crisis in the financial and credit markets may be from an inability&nbsp;of Greece or Dubai to pay their debt obligations.</font></p> </div> </div><br>

Japan Records Economic Growth

Published: Feb 15, 2010 by admin Filed under: Market Snapshot
Amid pessimistic trends in the market, negative data releases and economic threats whether from inflation in the American region or debts in the European region; Japan was able to show economic data that proves that the country’s economic growth was able to accelerate in the fourth quarter of last year.

This might give little lift for the market, as this proves that the world's second largest economy is on the right way to recovery from the worst recession since WWII.

Exports was the main reason behind today's cheerful report, as exports is the main pillar for economic recovery is increasing alongside higher demand, but still deflation risks threatening the economy that makes worry about the strength of recovery.

Japan's gross domestic product grew an annual 4.6% in the fourth quarter of last year after growing 1.3% that was revised to 0.0%, while the reading topped analysts' estimates of 3.6%.

The GDP expanded 1.1% in 4Q from the previous three months compared with a previous revised 0.0% from 0.3%, while forecasts referred to 0.9%.

Overseas shipments gained 5% in the fourth quarter from the previous there months, and net exports added 0.5 percentage points to the GDP.

However, the surging yen remains the main concern for Japanese exporters, keeping in mind that it gained about 5% in the past six months corroding exports earnings.

The Bank of Japan decided to fight deflation and the surging local currency through pumping 10 trillion yen as short term loans for commercial banks at 0.1%, and the bank accepted Japan government bonds, corporate bonds, and commercial papers as a collateral.

The BOJ is expected to keep interest rates at 0.1% in 2010 to give more time for the economy to benefit from low borrowing costs, and overcome deflation.



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